What are the chances of a cure after treatment ends

[Mike]

I'm virus free at the end of SOL+INT+RIBV treatment. The next question: Will I stay undetectable 12 weeks after treatment end = cured.

This research provides some answers to this question:

http://www.aidsmap.com/Sofosbuvir-works-well-despite-multiple-negative-predictive-factors/page/2848419/


Basically, any of these factors can impact treatment success - the more of these you have, the lower the outcome.

Relapse predictive factors include:

*Viral genotype: HCV genotypes 1 and 4 have been considered harder to treat than genotypes 2 or 3.

*Viral load: high pre-treatment HCV RNA (>800,000 IU/ml) is associated with poorer response.

*Sex: men do not respond as well as women.

*Age: older people do not respond as well as younger people.

*Race/ethnicity: people of African descent (and Hispanic/Latino people in some studies) do not respond as well as Caucasian or Asian people.

*Body weight: heavier people, especially those classified as obese (body mass index >30), do not respond as well.

*IL28B status: people who carry the TT or CT genetic variations do not respond as well as those with the favourable CC pattern.

*Liver damage: people with advanced fibrosis (stage F3) and especially cirrhosis (F4) do not response as those with absent to moderate fibrosis (F0-F2).

*HIV/HCV co-infection: people with both HIV and HCV do not respond as well as those with HCV alone.

*Prior treatment: People who previously showed modest or minimal response to prior interferon-based therapy (partial and null responders) do not respond as well as previously untreated (treatment-naive) people or those who previously responded but relapsed after finishing treatment.


Results:

'Cure' rates were 100% for people with zero or one negative predictive factor, above 99% for those with two factors and 94% for those with three factors. After this, efficacy dropped off, falling to 88% for those with four negative factors, 68% for those with five factors and 57% for those with six factors.

[Colormepurple]

Well congrats mike here's to 3 more months of success and all the months there after (Y)

[Mike]

Thanks CP,

I have a pretty good chance at slaying the dragon.

The way it looks, I have 4 adverse factors:

*Genotype 1a
*Male
*Failed previous tx
* Age (I'm 50)

This give me a 90% chance of staying virus free 12 weeks after treatment ends, which equals cured! Those are pretty good odds ♪♫♪♫

Solvaldi is a miracle drug!

Best wishes, Mike

[lporterrn]

We are waiting with you - you are slaying this dragon for all of us!

[jberlin]

Pulling for you Mike... I was 1a, contracted in 1976, 58, relapsed from 48 weeks of dual treatment in 2005....  cured with Incivek triple therapy!  I know you are cured man and can't wait to hear the proclamation!  -jack

[Mike]

Thanks Jack.

I think these next 12 weeks will be harder then the 12 weeks of tx. I hate waiting - the not knowing.

Mike

[lporterrn]

The lovely part about waiting. is the reclaiming of your body. It feels so good to start to get strong again.

[Marysee]

I can't wait to feel strong again

[Rich1957]

 Mike love the info on the %"s. I'm 56, male, and had a viral load of 3.5mil . According to your info I have got a 94% chance of being cured I'd bet on those odd's any day of the week. Thanks     What is your date for your 12 wk testing I would like to follow your progress. You are an inspiration to us all.  Fred

[Mike]

Hi Fred,

My 12 weeks post-treatment date is 7/4/14 (Independence Day).

I'll post the results and hopefully report a SRV12, which means the dragon is dead and wont be rising again!

Best wishes, Mike

[Colormepurple]

well not sure on the counts.

hubby 58
male
f3 cirrhosis started
2nd treatment
first  failed
so down to less percentage but still higher than none

[Colormepurple]

he has 6

[Mike]

Although not considered in this study, diabetes and high ferritin levels at the start of treatment, such as those associated with hemochromatosis can also reduce treatment success.

Regarding treatment outcomes and diabetes:

"...insulin resistance with or without overt manifestation of [diabetes] adversely impacts the clinical outcomes in HCV-infected patients, in terms of poor response to antiviral therapy, accelerated progression of liver fibrosis, and increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma."


Mike